The Democratic National Convention concluded last night with Harris formally accepting the party’s nomination for president. She was hand-picked by the party’s elite after President Joe Biden heeded calls to exit the race after concerns were raised about his mental fitness following a disastrous June debate against Trump. ?

Harris’ post-convention boost could be offset by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. this afternoon announcing the suspension of his presidential campaign and endorsement of Trump.?

Latest Odds

There are just 73 days until Nov. 5, though early voting will begin across the nation in the coming weeks and months. As of today, Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in the minds of political bettors risking money on the 2024 outcome.

Polymarket says more than $710.5 million has been bet on the market. Winning shares are redeemed at a dollar each. Polymarket charges a small deposit and withdrawal fee to operate the exchange.

Smarkets, a similar online political wagering platform, has Harris’ implied odds slightly ahead of Trump’s at 50.5% to 49%. However, Smarkets’ 2024 election outcome market has traded less than $8.2 million.

Betfair, yet another peer-to-peer political betting network, has Trump and Harris each at even money.

Oddsmakers in the United Kingdom where betting on elections, both U.S. and U.K. elections, isn’t frowned upon but embraced, Harris and Trump have the same odds as of Friday afternoon.

William Hill, a leading sportsbook up and down high streets, has Harris and Trump at 10/11 (-110). The line implies odds of 52.48%, with a winning $100 bet netting $90.91.

As for the polls, the latest average compiled by Real Clear Politics has Harris up 48.4-46.9.

Political Wagering Crackdown?

The U.S. government has long opposed the facilitation of gambling on elections. As a result, state gaming regulators in jurisdictions where sports betting is allowed have prohibited their sportsbooks from including political lines.

Wagering exchanges have operated in a grey area stateside, but those days could soon end.

In May, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC), which in 2014 granted an online political wagering site a “No-Action Relief” letter suggesting the business would not face legal consequences for accepting wagers from U.S. customers, announced its change of heart in recommending that such exchanges be excluded from the marketplace.

The CTFC has taken a new approach to political wagering since Chair Rostin Benham became the boss of the independent government agency in January 2022. The CTFC is tasked with regulating derivative markets, including futures, swaps, and certain kinds of options.

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During an interview with Stuart Varney, O’Leary, 70, said he thinks betting activity is a more reliable predictor of a race than polls.

I’d rather go with the Vegas bettors in terms of looking at election results. They’re better than the pollsters, frankly, if you look at the history,” O’Leary said.

Technically, there are no political bettors in Las Vegas, as Nevada doesn’t permit its licensed sportsbooks to take action on election results. No state with legal sports gambling allows election wagering, but the practice is widespread throughout the United Kingdom and Europe.

Political betting is also allowed in parts of O’Leary’s native Canada, including Ontario. After the failed assassination attempt of Donald Trump in July, FanDuel and BetMGM in Canada removed their 2024 odds on the US election.

Political Markets’ Accuracy

Political betting exchanges remain relatively new, but such websites did get the 2016 election right while nearly all polls had Hillary Clinton up big ahead of the contest against former President Donald Trump. The consensus odds on political exchanges also correctly predicted that Joe Biden would oust Trump from the White House nearly four years ago.

UK bookmakers that offer traditional odds on US elections also have Harris as the front-runner. High-street betting shops have the vice president at 4/5 (-120). A winning $100 bet on that line would net $80.

Trump, once a big favorite before President Joe Biden decided to heed calls from his party leaders to exit the 2024 race, is now the underdog. The former casino owner’s 2024 odds are at even money, with a winning $100 bet netting $100.

Robert Kennedy, Jr. is a distant third at 100/1.

Too Soon to Predict

O’Leary thinks the betting markets will provide more useful insights once the policy discussion between Harris and Trump heats up and possible debates between the two are held.

I don’t think anybody can call this race right now. We’ve got to get into the policy wars and hopefully the debate wars,” O’Leary said.

“I want to remind you that back when Trump was debating Clinton, there was a Sunday when the football games were on and I found myself watching the debate and being more entertained than football,” O’Leary continued. “I think the potential of a Harris-Trump debate is going to be great television.” ?

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Harris, the Democratic nominee following President Joe Biden’s decision in July to not seek a second four-year term at the age of 81, confirmed Tuesday that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz had accepted her invitation to be her running mate. Walz, a Democrat, served in Congress before becoming governor of Minnesota in January 2019.

Billed as a former high school social studies teacher, football coach, and union member, Walz is expected to churn out support across the Midwest for Harris, who would become the first woman to ever hold the office of commander-in-chief. Bettors, however, didn’t react much to the Walz news.

On Polymarket, a decentralized peer-to-peer betting exchange that offers trading on election outcomes, former President Donald Trump remained the 2024 front-runner.

Betfair, a similar political wagering exchange, also maintained Trump as the favorite with his odds at 5/6 (-120). The line implies an outcome of about 55%. A winning $100 bet on that line would net $83.33. Harris is at 6/5 (+120). A winning $100 bet would net $120.

I’m all in,” Walz said on X after being picked. “Vice President Harris is showing us the politics of what’s possible. It reminds me a bit of the first day of school.”

Walz added that it’s “the honor of a lifetime” to run with Harris.

‘Weird’ VP Selections

Harris confirmed her Walz pick on X. She said the Minnesotan has “delivered for working families” and it’s “great to have him on the team.”

Walz was chosen over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. Critics of the Walz pick believe Harris was afraid to select Shapiro because he’s Jewish, a choice that could hamper the Democrats’ pro-Palestine vote.

Walz was presumably the safer bet for Harris, though Pennsylvania is expected to be a key battleground state in this presidential election.

Walz, who was among the first to call Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, “weird,” is now facing backlash from party supporters for being Harris’ pick.

Rather than pick the very popular governor of a neck-and-neck must-win purple state, Harris chose a dime-a-dozen blue-state governor who gives feels to progressives,” opined liberal political commentator Damon Linker.

Meghan McCain, one of Trump’s most outspoken opponents, said “Trump and Republicans got lucky with the Walz pick.”?

Books Maintain Trump as Favorite?

In the United Kingdom where regulated sportsbooks are allowed to take bets on politics, high street betting shops kept Trump and Vance as the 2024 favorites.

Trump is at 4/5 (-125) at William Hill and 8/11 (-138) at Paddy Power. Harris is at even money (1/1, +100).

Biden said he was pleased to learn about Harris’ VP decision.

“They will be the strongest defenders of our personal freedoms and our democracy,” Biden said via social media. “And they will ensure that America continues to lead the world and play its role as the indispensable nation.”

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in May proposed amending its regulations to prohibit peer-to-peer wagering contracts involving “gaming, war, terrorism, assassination” and any activity that is “unlawful under any federal or state law.” The proposal specifically seeks to ban political wagering exchanges that facilitate the buying and selling of political outcome shares from operating within the US.

The handful of Democratic senators, plus three Democratic US representatives, support the CFTC proposal.

Election gambling fundamentally cheapens the sanctity of our democratic process,” the congressional lawmakers wrote CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam. “Political bets change the motivations behind each vote, replacing political convictions with financial calculations.”

Along with Merkley, the letter asking the CFTC to exclude political contract wagering includes Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut), Chris Van Hollen (D-Maryland), Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts), and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-Rhode Island). US Reps. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-Washington, DC), Jamie Raskin (D-Maryland), and John Sarbanes (D-Maryland) were also co-signers.

No legal sports betting state allows oddsmakers to offer traditional betting on election outcomes, so you won’t find 2024 presidential odds at DraftKings, FanDuel, or any other regulated sportsbook. Online political wagering exchanges instead allow bettors to gamble with one another.

Data, Educational Insights

The CFTC has previously granted political wagering exchanges “No-Action Relief letters suggesting that such online platforms wouldn’t face legal consequences from federal prosecutors.

Since becoming CFTC chair in 2021, Behnam has expressed concerns about election gambling. In his May rule change proposal, Behnam said election wagering degrades “the uniquely American experience” of participating in the democratic electoral process.

Merkley and his supporters agree. They say such gambling further lessens the public’s trust in the political system.

“Allowing billionaires to wager extraordinary bets while simultaneously contributing to a specific candidate or party, and political insiders to bet on elections using non-public information, will further degrade public trust in the electoral process. We urge you to promptly finalize and implement this rule to prevent the commodification of U.S. elections,” the lawmakers wrote.

Mixed Feedback

The CFTC held a public comment period that expired July 9. In the comments posted to the CFTC website, it’s clear that the election wagering issue is contentious.

Several comments from CFTC commissioners questioned the federal agency’s powers and whether the proposed election wagering rule violates the US Constitution.

I respectfully dissent from the Event Contracts Proposal because it takes the CFTC’s regulation of event contract markets backwards with its fundamental misunderstanding of how we regulate derivatives and the States regulate gaming,” wrote CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham. “Instead of thoughtfully considering how to effectively regulate these markets while fostering innovation, the Event Contracts Proposal ties itself in knots over the bounds of gaming, which Congress has neither asked nor directed the CFTC to regulate.”

Pham cited the Tenth Amendment and the Founders’ directive that powers not delegated to the federal government through the US Constitution be reserved to the states. CFTC Commissioner Summer Mersinger also dissented on grounds that a blanket ban on contract wagering could potentially prohibit “exchange-traded event contract whose terms and conditions the Commission has never even seen.”

Commissioners Kristin Johnson and Christy Goldsmith Romero backed the Behnam proposal.

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After the US Supreme Court gave states the right to determine their own laws on sports betting through their landmark 2018 decision that repealed the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) that had limited single-game wagering to Nevada, nearly 40 states have passed laws to govern sports gambling. Many of those states based their sports betting rules on Nevada, the state considered to be the “gold standard” of casino and gambling regulation.

Benham’s CFTC has proposed banning political wagering exchanges, too.

The CFTC, under Benham’s predecessors, granted certain peer-to-peer wagering exchanges “No-Action Relief” letters suggesting they could operate in the US without risk of legal prosecution. The concessions were given because the exchanges provide valuable data insights and serve as educational tools.

Exchanges Pulling in Big Money

The 2024 presidential election between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is shaping up to be extraordinarily close. The race, which was only set last month after President Joe Biden announced he would adhere to calls from his party leaders to step down, is attracting a precipitous amount of money on the leading exchanges.

On Smarkets, about $7 million has been bet on the November 5 victor. Trump is favored there too at implied odds of 52%.

The Betfair exchange has Trump favored at 5/6 to Harris at 6/5. The exchange says it’s facilitating over $600K in bets a day on the election.

PredictIt has seen a surge in wagers on its 2024 US presidential election market since late June. Bettors on the exchange have purchased nearly 31.6 million shares of candidates becoming the next commander-in-chief.

PredictIt is the lone exchange showing Harris as the favorite. Her shares are trading at 55 cents to Trump at 49 cents. Winning shares are redeemed at $1 each.

Overseas Dominates Action?

The exchanges have facilitated about a half-billion dollars in bets on the 2024 US presidential election. Even more money is thought to have been wagered in the UK, where oddsmakers and their customers have for decades enjoyed political betting.

High Street betting shops have seen a flurry of action on the 2024 contest, as the well-known, divisive Trump regularly attracts big bets, and many of them.

William Hill, one of the largest bookies in the UK, has the former casino owner as the front-runner at 4/5, or implied odds of 55.6%. Harris is at even money — 50% implied odds.

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A little more than a week after her boss, President Joe Biden, made the historic announcement that he would exit the race following numerous calls from Democratic leaders who grew increasingly concerned about the 81-year-old’s mental fitness, and endorsed his vice president for the 2024 election, Harris’ campaign is reporting robust financial support.

Her early campaign messaging is resonating with Democrats, and that’s prompted oddsmakers to shorten her November 4 odds. Political bettors on peer-to-peer exchanges have also shortened their liability on former President Donald Trump winning a second term in favor of putting some action on Harris, the 59-year-old former US senator from California.

2024 Odds Shorten in Harris’ Favor

William Hill, one of the largest bookmakers in the United Kingdom where betting on election outcomes is allowed — something not offered in any legal sports betting state in the US — the book has slashed Harris’ odds from +200 to +138 over the past 10 days. Her current line suggests implied odds of 42%, up from just 33%.

On political wagering exchanges, which continue to allow US-based bettors to participate, though the legality of such online platforms remains in question, Harris’ stock has climbed from 40 cents following the Biden exit to 49 cents today. Betting exchanges redeem shares at $1 each following an election’s fate being decided.

A new poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that about eight in 10 Democrats are “somewhat satisfied” or “very satisfied” with Harris being the party’s nominee despite the fact she didn’t gain a single vote during the primary. The vice president is set to formally become her party’s nominee for president next month at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

Before Biden’s exit, the same poll found that only four in 10 Democrats were at least somewhat satisfied with the president seeking another four-year term.

Harris hasn’t picked a running mate yet, but is expected to name someone next week. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) is the betting favorite at implied odds of about 65%.

Latest Polling

According to the RealClearPolitics poll average of recently published major polls, Trump maintains a two-point advantage over Harris.

Perhaps more important are the battleground states. Polls have those key outcomes split at this juncture, with Trump leading in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, but Harris up in Michigan and Nevada. Other critical races this November include Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona, which are currently split, depending on the poll.

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Harris assumed the Democratic Party’s nomination this week following President Joe Biden’s historic exit. Biden’s decision to drop out came after many in his party questioned his mental fitness to serve another four years.

During his June debate performance against former President Donald Trump, Biden seemed to labor to express his thoughts and articulate coherent, complete sentences. With Harris poised to formally accept her party’s nomination for president next month at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, all eyes are focused on who the vice president will choose as her vice presidential candidate.

Bettors Like Kelly

On political exchanges, which allow those who believe they’re politically savvy and able to foresee the outcomes of elections and political events, bettors are taking stock in Kelly being Harris’ man. Several leading peer-to-peer political wagering exchanges have Kelly’s stock at implied odds of around 40%.

Pennsylvania’s Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is next at around 25%. Other contenders include North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) at 13%, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 7%, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) at 6%. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) is another popular pick at 5%.

If bettors are right that Kelly is the man for the Harris campaign, a $100 wager would net $110.

Kelly has served in the US Senate since assuming office in December 2020. He won the special election a month prior that arose following the death of longtime Sen. John McCain (R).

Kelly flipped the seat blue for the first time since 1962 and won reelection in 2022. Kelly is a former naval aviator and astronaut who completed four missions to space in 2001, 2006, 2008, and 2011. He logged a total of 54 days in orbit. ?

Kelly is married to former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords (D-Arizona), who was shot and nearly killed during an assassination attempt on Jan. 8, 2011. Six people died in the Tucson shooting, including federal judge John Roll. The gunman later pleaded guilty and was sentenced to life plus 140 years in federal prison.

Trump Maintains Advantage

Democrats are rallying around Harris, but as of now, the odds suggest Trump is the betting front-runner.

Polls have things a bit closer.

According to the most recent polling average compiled by Real Clear Politics, an online polling data aggregator, Trump maintains a 1.9-point advantage over Harris. However, two more recent polls from Morning Consult and Reuters/Ipsos show Harris with as much as a two-point lead.

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Biden formally ended his presidential reelection campaign on Sunday while continuing to recover from COVID-19 from his Rehoboth Beach house in Delaware. The 81-year-old’s decision comes after a disastrous debate performance against former President Donald Trump and mounting doubts about his mental and physical fitness for the office.

My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term,” Biden wrote on X.

“My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year,” the president’s statement continued.

“Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this,” Biden concluded.

2024 Odds Move?

Following the unprecedented announcement marking the first time in US history that a major party’s presidential nominee declined to run, political bettors took steep stakes on Harris making her own history by becoming the country’s first female president.

On political betting exchanges, Harris’ stock of winning the November 5 election surged 10% to implied odds of 36%. Biden’s exit hurts Trump in the eyes of some bettors, as his shares declined a few cents to implied odds of 62%.

Before rumors circulated late last week that Biden was developing his exit plan with his closest advisors, Harris was at +500.

Biden plans to serve out the remainder of his term. His fellow supporters praised the president’s decision.

“He once again put his country, his party, and our future first,” said Schumer. “Joe, today shows you are a true patriot and great American.”

Biden said serving as president “has been the greatest honor of my life” and planned to win reelection but now believes “it is in the best interests of my party and the country for me to stand down.”

Recent polling suggests Trump and Harris both have negative approval ratings.

Trump Response, VP odds

Trump, of course, weighed in on Biden’s withdrawal.

[Biden] only attained the position of President by lies, Fake News, and not leaving his Basement. All those around him, including his Doctor and the Media, knew that he wasn’t capable of being President, and he wasn’t — And now, look what he’s done to our Country, with millions of people coming across our Border, totally unchecked and unvetted, many from prisons, mental institutions, and record numbers of terrorists,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social medial platform.

As for who will be Harris’ running mate, the odds favor California Gov. Gavin Newsom (+1400), with former First Lady Michelle Obama and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer at +1600.

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Biden tested positive for COVID-19 this week while campaigning in Las Vegas. He cut his visit short to Southern Nevada to travel back to his vacation home in Rehoboth Beach to recover.

The president contracting the coronavirus came just days after the assassination attempt of Trump at his rally in Butler, Pa. Biden has veered out of the limelight. Still, his social media accounts remain lively, though many wonder who is posting the content. Trump meanwhile took the stage last night at the Republican National Convention where he officially became the party’s 2024 nominee.

Bettors continue to reduce their liability on Biden winning on Nov. 5, which is subsequently propelling oddsmakers to lengthen their lines on the incumbent.

Biden Odds Lengthen

On political exchanges that facilitate the buying and selling of election outcomes, Biden’s stock price has tumbled from nearly 50 cents in late June to just 14 cents as of this afternoon. During that same time, Trump’s stock has climbed from 51 cents to nearly 70 cents, though his stock has since retracted to 64 cents.

Winning shares upon the closure of a market are redeemed at $1, minus platform commission fees.

Harris is seen by many as Biden’s successor should he bow out. Over the past month, the vice president’s shares of winning the 2024 presidential election have surged from just three cents to 29 cents.

Overseas sportsbooks where outright odds on elections are allowed have similarly adjusted their lines.

Despite the political rumblings that Biden is preparing his exit strategy in consultation with his key advisors, the president’s campaign continues to maintain that he’s in it to win it.

The stakes have never been higher. The choice has never been more clear,” said Biden campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon. “President Biden is more determined than ever to defeat Donald Trump.”

Trump delivered an emotional if not dramatic 93-minute speech Thursday night where he began by discussing the assassination attempt on his life.

“I’m not supposed to be here tonight,” Trump told the crowd. “The discord and division in our society must be healed. We must heal it quickly.”

Political pundits said when Trump stuck to the script, his message was one of unity with a softer tone.

I am running to be president for all of America, not half of America, because there is no victory in winning for half of America,” the 45th president declared.

But when Trump didn’t read the teleprompter, he reverted to his MAGA rallying calls, attacked his political rivals, and continued to allege that the 2020 election was stolen from him.?

VP Odds

It appears if Biden does step aside, it’s Harris’ ticket, though delegates could choose someone else at next month’s Democratic National Convention.

As of now, betting favorites to serve as Harris’ running mate include Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

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During a rally on Saturday in Butler, Pennsylvania, for the 45th president of the United States, the FBI says a 20-year-old opened fire from a nearby rooftop aimed at Trump’s head. The bullet “pierced the upper part” of the billionaire’s right ear before the 78-year-old ducked for cover and Secret Service agents rushed the stage to cover the former casino magnate.

The FBI identified the shooter as Thomas Matthew Crooks, a registered Republican but who, per federal campaign finance records, contributed $15 to ActBlue, a progressive political action committee that supports Democratic politicians, on Jan. 20, 2021, the day Biden was sworn into office.

Trump Odds Shorten

In the aftermath of nearly dying by a matter of inches, Trump took to his TruthSocial media platform. While he survived, one attendee at the rally was killed and two others were injured.

Thank you to everyone for your thoughts and prayers yesterday, as it was God alone who prevented the unthinkable from happening. We will FEAR NOT, but instead remain resilient in our Faith and Defiant in the face of Wickedness,” Trump posted.

Bettors risking money on the 2024 outcome expanded their liabilities on Trump ousting Biden. On political wagering exchanges, the only form of political gambling that is permitted in a gray area, as legal challenges persist, Trump’s implied odds of winning in November improved from about 59% to 66%.

Bookmakers in the UK are legally allowed to take bets on US political outcomes. Oddsmakers there also shortened their lines on Trump winning.

Trump tried to unite a most divisive country.

“In this moment, it is more important than ever that we stand United, and show our True Character as Americans, remaining Strong and Determined, and not allowing Evil to Win. I truly love our Country, and love you all,” Trump said.

Bipartisan Support

Leaders from both sides of the political arena voiced support for the former president.

Biden said he had “been briefed on the shooting at Donald Trump’s rally” and was “grateful to hear that he’s safe and doing well.” The president added that he’s “praying for him and his family.” Vice President Kamala Harris issued a similar statement.

Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, a front-runner for Trump’s VP pick, said the assassination attempt was “not just some isolated incident.”

The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs,” Vance wrote on X. “That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.”

Vance included a link to a GoFundMe page for the shooting victims. Vivek Ramaswamy, another possible Trump VP pick, donated $30K to the fund. The founder of Jimmy John’s contributed $10K.

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While the president was in more command of his words and better articulated his thoughts, gaffes remained, most notably when he referred to former President Donald Trump as his vice president.

Bettors risking money on the November 5 outcome didn’t react positively to Biden’s press conference. They instead further lessened their liability on the incumbent securing another four years in office.

Biden’s 2024 Odds Lengthen?

Following Biden’s media meeting on Thursday, the president’s 2024 odds further lengthened. Biden’s shares on political wagering exchanges give him an implied chance of only 22% of defeating Trump.

Meanwhile, bettors are getting behind Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democratic Party’s eventual nominee. Political exchanges have Harris the front-runner to secure the party’s nomination with her shares at implied odds of 43%. Biden’s stock is at 42%.

Asked Thursday why he’s changed his position about being a “bridge candidate,” a promise he made during his 2020 campaign suggesting he’d serve only one term, Biden answered that the “gravity of the situation” he inherited prompted him into needing another four years to “finish this job.” Probed about whether he doesn’t feel confident in Harris becoming the party’s leader, Biden confused his right-hand lady with his political foe.

Look, I wouldn’t have picked Vice President Trump to be vice president if I didn’t think she was qualified to be president,” he said.

As for outright 2024 odds, Trump is the favorite at -190. A winning $100 bet on that line would net $52 and change. Harris is at +350 and Biden is at +800.

The latest polling composite compiled by Real Clear Politics agrees that Trump is the November favorite. The Republican maintains a roughly three-point advantage over Biden.?

Trump’s Running Mate

Trump continues to tease who will be his 2024 running mate. Bettors are getting behind Ohio’s junior Senator J.D. Vance.

Others reportedly in the running include North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (R-Hawaii), and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

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President Joe Biden remains on the defensive following his dismal debate performance that resulted in many calls for him to step down from seeking a second four-year time as commander-in-chief. Several Democratic congressional lawmakers have urged the 81-year-old to fold on his 2024 campaign after the president struggled to complete his sentences and often stood with his mouth agape while his opponent spoke.

After arguing over their physical abilities, Biden said he’d “be happy to have a driving contest” with Trump.

“I got my handicap when I was vice president down to a six,” Biden said. “I told you before, I’m happy to play golf with you if you carry your own bag. Think you can do it?”

“That’s the biggest lie that he’s a six handicap,” Trump responded.

“I was an eight handicap,” Biden then said.

“I’ve seen your swing,” Trump countered.

Golf Match Odds?

This week, Trump extended an offer to his rival for the two to play a round of golf. If Biden wins, Trump, the former casino magnate worth billions, has pledged to donate $1 million to Biden’s charity of choice.

I’m officially offering Joe the chance to redeem himself,” Trump said during a rally in Florida this week. “I am officially challenging crooked Joe to an 18-hole golf match.”

Trump suggested the match be held at his Trump National Doral Golf Resort in Miami.

Of course, none of this is going to happen.

Joe Biden doesn’t have time for Donald Trump’s weird antics — he’s busy leading America and defending the free world. Donald Trump is a liar, a convict, and a fraud only out for himself — par for the course,” said Biden spokesperson James Singer.

According to GHIN, the Golf Handicap Information Network run by the United States Golf Association, Trump has an active handicap of 2.5, though he hasn’t posted a score since June 2021. Biden’s handicap is 6.7, though he hasn’t posted a score since July 2018.

Latest Odds?

With calls for him to suspend his campaign, VP Kamala Harris now has the second-shortest odds of winning in November behind Trump.

Actor George Clooney, who only last month held a star-studded fundraiser in Hollywood for Biden, came out this week calling for the president to exit the race.

“I love Joe Biden. I consider him a friend,” Clooney wrote in a New York Times op-ed. “It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fund-raiser was not the Joe ‘big F-ing deal’ Biden of 2010. He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate.”

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The 10-minute July 4 holiday chow-down showdown still went down on Coney Island, and the person who has long highlighted the undercard took on the starring role. New York-born Miki Sudo, 38, a dental hygienist in training, needs no introduction to anyone who has followed the annual holiday hot dog eating contest.

Sudo was the heavy favorite to win the women’s competition, with ESPN Bet listing her at -750. Sudo didn’t disappoint, as she wolfed down 51 hot dogs and buns during the 10-minute period to set a new women’s world record.

I’m just happy to call this mine for another year,” Sudo said after winning her 10th Pink Belt.

Sudo outate 13 other women. Her performance today was 11.5 dogs and buns more than what she got down during the 2023 competition.

Sudo Stars

Since the Nathan’s Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest added a women’s division in 2011, Sudo has been crowned the champion in 10 of the 14 competitions.

Sudo topped 50 dogs for the first time in her Nathan’s career. She says she isn’t finished.

Even 10 years into this year, I still have even more to show,” she said. “The women’s record is just going to improve from here on out and there’s a lot of exciting things to come.”

Sudo arrived on the Nathan’s scene with the 2014 event where she unseated Sonya Thomas who had won each of the previous three hot dog eating contests. Sudo has never been defeated, as she skipped the 2021 event won by Michelle Lesco due to being pregnant. ?

Rising Star?

On the 14-eater men’s side, betting was much more interesting with Chestnut out.

A closely contested 10 minutes ended with Chicagoan Patrick Bertoletti, 39, the victor with 58 hot dogs and buns. Bertoletti won over Geoffrey Esper of Massachusetts who managed 53 hot dogs.

Always the bridesmaid, with Joey not here, I knew I had a shot,” Bertoletti said afterwards.

Before the men’s contest, Bertoletti had the third-shortest odds at +850. Esper, who finished second last year with 49.5 dogs to Chestnut’s 62, was the betting front-runner at even money. James Webb was third at +150.

Sudo’s husband, Nick Wehry, was off to an early lead in the men’s event before slowing down in the second half. He finished third with 46 dogs. ??

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Biden’s debate performance in which he repeatedly struggled to conjugate sentences and articulate his thoughts, with his list of stunning blunders highlighted by claiming he “finally beat Medicare” while attempting to answer a question about the national debt, has Democrats understandably worried about whether the 81-year-old is mentally capable of serving another four-year term.

Some Democrats like Vice President Kamala Harris tried to downplay the commander-in-chief’s performance.

It was a slow start,” Harris told CNN. “I’m not going to debate that. I’m talking about the choice in November. I’m talking about one of the most important elections in our collective lifetime.”

Americans on both sides of the political aisle likely agree with Harris that November 5 is critically important to the country’s future. That’s why some Democrats are concerned that Biden doesn’t have what it takes to beat Trump a second time.

“Every Democrat I know is texting that this is bad. Just say it publicly and begin the hard work of creating space in the convention for a selection process. I’ll vote for a corpse over Trump, but this is a suicide mission,” said Ravi Gupta, a former campaign manager for President Barack Obama.?

Exit Calls

CNN political commentator and former Biden strategist Van Jones said his former boss’s performance “was painful” and that “he didn’t do well at all.”

I just want to speak from my heart: I love that guy,” Jones continued. “That’s a good man. He loves his country. He’s doing the best that he can. But he had a test to meet tonight to restore confidence in the country and he failed to do that.”

Jones added that there are a lot of people who want “to take a different course.” A different course would require Biden to agree to step aside and willingly contribute his Democratic delegates that he won by the state-by-state primary process to a designated candidate.

Oddsmakers in the UK, where political betting is allowed, quickly adjusted their lines.

Trump, who was already the 2024 betting front-runner, was further shortened by William Hill to -175 (implied odds of 64%). A $100 winning bet on that line nets $57.14.

Biden’s line was further lengthened to +450 (implied odds of 18%).

Newsom Backup?

With some Democrats scrambling for a Biden replacement, bettors believe Newsom is next in line to lead the party. Newsom’s stock rose from trading at just 8 cents to 23 cents in winning the Democratic Party 2024 ticket.

Newsom, however, urged the party to keep calm and carry on with Biden.

“I think it’s unhelpful and unnecessary,” Newsom said of the rush to swap out Biden. “We’ve got to keep our heads high. We’ve got to have the back of this president. You don’t turn back because of one performance. What kind of party does that?”

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In a most devastating announcement to Major League Eating’s (MLE) biggest annual event held on the Coney Island Boardwalk each Independence Day, officials with Nathan’s, which produces the 10-minute hot dog and bun eating competition with MLE, confirmed Chestnut’s ban. The 40-year-old has been disqualified from participating because he recently accepted a sponsorship with Impossible Foods to help market the company’s plant-based hot dogs.

We are devastated to learn that Joey Chestnut has chosen to represent a rival brand that sells plant-based hot dogs rather than competing in the 2024 Nathan’s Famous Fourth of July Hot Dog Eating Contest,” a statement from MLE read.

“MLE and Nathan’s went to great lengths in recent months to accommodate Joey and his management team, agreeing to the appearance fee and allowing Joey to compete in a rival, unbranded hot dog eating contest on Labor Day,” the release continued. “For nearly two decades we have worked under the same basic hot dog exclusivity provisions. However, it seems that Joey and his managers have prioritized a new partnership with a different brand over our long-time relationship.”

Pit in Stomach

Chestnut said he learned through the media about his exclusion from next month’s July 4 hot dog eating contest.

I was gutted to learn from the media that after 19 years I’m banned from the Nathan’s July 4th Hot Dog Eating Contest,” Chestnut tweeted on X. “I love competing in that event. I love celebrating America with my fans … and I have been training to defend my title.”

Chestnut said he doesn’t have a contract with MLE nor Nathan’s, but claims they instead are simply upset he partnered with Impossible.

“They are looking to change the rules from past years as it relates to partners I can work with,” Chestnut alleged.

MLE and Nathan’s said there’s still time for a possible resolution that would allow Chestnut to compete, but that would presumably include him ditching his Impossible deal.

With Chestnut presumably out, the men’s betting front-runner is Geoffrey Esper at -225. Esper finished in a distant second last year.

Perennial Favorite Absent?

Chestnut has been the heavy favorite to remain the king of the dogs ever since he arrived on the world competitive eating scene in 2006 and won the Nathan’s event by smashing down 66 dogs and buns in 12 minutes (the contest was shortened to 10 minutes in 2008). Chestnut holds Nathan’s record for most dogs and buns eaten with 76, a feat he set in 2021.

Chestnut prevailed after sloshing down 62 buns and rolls. Esper managed 49 dogs. ??

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Trump continues to deny any wrongdoing and stresses that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) levied a political witch hunt, something he pledged during his 2021 campaign for the New York County District Attorney seat. The former president and casino mogul is now considered a convicted felon, though his legal team is planning an appeal.

Trump has maintained that the Daniels payment was “not hush money” but a “nondisclosure agreement” that is “totally legal” and “totally common.”

2024 Odds Stagnant

Soon after the Thursday verdict, UK oddsmakers where election betting is allowed and political wagering exchanges operating in the US saw a flurry of bets on the November presidential election outcome. But the robust action didn’t result in much line movement on who will emerge as the 2024 victor.

Online political betting exchanges that operate in the US by facilitating the buying and selling of political outcome shares in a peer-to-peer arrangement and not against the house have also kept Trump as the favorite. However, Biden has gained some ground.

Smarkets’ odds gave Trump a winning likelihood of about 55% before the Thursday news. Today, those odds are down to about 50%. Biden is at 40%. ??

Though the incumbent closed the gap on Smarkets, another prominent political exchange, Betfair, saw just the opposite. Trump’s shares on Betfair actually shortened following his conviction from implied winning odds of 49% to upwards of 51%. ?

Unintended Consequences

Bragg naturally celebrated his office’s successful prosecution of Trump.

The 12 every day jurors vowed to make a decision based on the evidence and the law — and the evidence and the law alone,” Bragg said. “Their deliberations led them to a unanimous conclusion, beyond a reasonable doubt: That the defendant, Donald J. Trump, is guilty of 34 counts of Falsifying Business Records in the First Degree, to conceal a scheme to corrupt the 2016 election.”

Though Bragg was happy with the verdict, an unintended consequence of the prosecution has been a rush of funds to the Trump campaign.

Along with two billionaire GOP megadonors — Las Vegas Sands’ Dr. Miriam Adelson and Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman — recently announcing their 2024 support of Trump, the 45th president’s campaign announced on Friday that it raised $34.8 million from small donors in the immediate hours after the New York jury handed down its verdict.

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The Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) works to strengthen ties between the Jewish community and GOP decision-makers. The nonprofit additionally focuses on improving relations between the U.S. and Israeli governments.

With unrest on college campuses and in major cities across the country regarding the Israeli war with Hamas in Gaza, with protests focusing on freeing Palestine, the RJC says it’s “more energized than ever” to support Trump’s candidacy for the White House.

RJC officials last week pledged to contribute a minimum of $5 million to the 45th president’s reelection cause. The donation is in addition to the organization’s $15 million bankroll it will disperse to GOP candidates and Trump during the 2024 elections.

As antisemitism spikes to record highs and America’s relationship with our ally Israel continues to reach new lows, the Jewish community is more energized than ever to turn the page from the failures, broken promises, and betrayals by Joe Biden. November 5 cannot come soon enough,” RJC Political Director Sam Markstein told Fox News.

The RJC was founded in 1985 as the National Jewish Coalition. The organization is based in Washington, D.C.

Casino Leadership

The RJC became extraordinarily powerful in the political lobbying world partially because of Sheldon Adelson, the late founder of the Las Vegas Sands casino empire. Adelson, who died in January 2021 at the age of 87, sat on the RJC board for many years and remains listed as a board member with the Hebrew phrase z”l listed next to his name to honor his memory.

Adelson poured many millions of dollars into the RJC’s super political action committee RJC Victory Fund. Adelson and his wife, Dr. Miriam Adelson, also gave over $200 million to Trump’s 2016 and 2020 White House campaigns.

During his presidency, Trump appeased one of the Adelsons’ greatest wishes in relocating the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. The Adelsons sat front and center and the ceremonial opening of the embassy on May 14, 2018.

Trump Betting Favorite

The Israel-Hamas conflict is causing a divide within the Democratic party and presumably improving Trump’s 2024 odds. Paired with the Biden administration’s unrelenting financial support of Ukraine in its war against Russia and the ongoing high costs of living in the states because of inflation, many believe change at the White House is needed.

The Real Clear Politics polling average suggests Trump has a 0.9-point advantage over Biden. Trump also maintains polling leads in the key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

UK oddsmakers that can take bets on the 2024 outcome think Trump will win, too. Bookmaker William Hill has Trump at -120 (implied odds of 55%) to Biden at +120 (implied odds of 45%).

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A fiery, if not angry, Biden stressed to the nation that the union is strong. He asked for the country’s support in allowing him a second term by promoting his successes. Biden criticized his predecessor for the January 6 insurrection and attacked the Supreme Court sitting before him for overturning Roe v. Wade.

According to political bettors, Biden fared well.

Biden Bounce

On political wagering exchange Smarkets, Biden has seen his implied 2024 odds improve.

At UK sportsbooks, where political betting is allowed, William Hill has Biden at 1/5 — an implied chance of 83.3% — to win his party’s ticket for a second consecutive presidential election.

Despite Biden’s SOTU betting boost, former President Donald Trump remains the 2024 front-runner. The billionaire former casino owner has an implied chance of about 48.5% of winning on November 5. His overseas odds are 5/6, an implied shot of 54.5%.

Biden’s biggest win on Thursday night was presumably fending off concerns about his age.

My fellow Americans, the issue facing our nation isn’t how old we are — it’s how old our ideas are,” the president said toward the end of his speech. “Hate, anger, revenge, and retribution are the oldest of ideas. You can’t lead America with ancient ideas that only take us back,” the President declared.

Biden also went after Trump for his unwillingness to leave the White House after losing the 2020 election.

“My predecessor and some of you here seek to bury the truth about January 6. I will not do that. Here’s the simple truth: you can’t love your country only when you win,” Biden said.

Polling Favors Trump

According to the latest polls compiled by Real Clear Politics, Trump has a 1.8-point advantage over Biden. Biden is ahead in only four of the 12 polls included in the composite.

The Harvard-Harris and NY Times/Siena polls have Trump up six points. Biden’s biggest lead is four points in the Quinnipiac poll.

Unsurprisingly, Trump bashed Biden’s SOTU performance.

“Crooked Joe Biden is on the run from his record and lying like crazy to try and escape accountability for the horrific devastation he and his party have created,” Trump said on his Truth Social media platform.

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Trump, the perennial favorite to win the GOP presidential ticket for a third consecutive election cycle, won 14 of the 15 Super Tuesday contests on the Republican side. Trump’s lone defeat came in Vermont, where Nikki Haley was the victor. But the Green Mountain State has an open primary where many Democrats are presumed to have voted against Trump by selecting the former UN ambassador.

American Samoa certainly won’t inhibit Biden’s path to the 2024 ballot. And with Haley expected to announce a suspension to her campaign on Wednesday morning, the November ballot is nearly set with Trump vs. Biden.

2024 Odds?

Following Super Tuesday’s outcome, political bettors on wagering exchanges have further shortened Biden and Trump’s odds of winning their party nominations.

Trump is an even bigger favorite for the GOP ticket. The billionaire and former casino magnate, who continues to contend he was wrongly forced out of the White House on a stolen election, has implied odds of 97% of being the Republicans’ presidential pick. Haley is now at just 1%, along with former candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

As for the general election outcome, Smarkets bettors have Trump as the front-runner with an implied chance of 48%. Biden is a distant second at 33%.

GOP Division

With Haley’s exit and this week’s Supreme Court ruling saying the billionaire will be on the ballot in states that sought to keep him off, Trump’s path to the 2024 GOP ticket is paved. With Biden set to become the Democrats’ presumptive nominee, political operatives are ramping up the candidates’ general election campaigns.

A recent poll from Bloomberg News/Morning Consult has Biden trailing Trump in several key swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin.

There remains speculation that Biden could transfer his primary delegates to a hand-picked successor during the Democratic Convention, with Newsom and Obama the leading favorites. With many voters questioning his mental fitness at 81 years old (he turns 82 on November 20 and would be 86 by the time his second term would culminate), his performance during Thursday night’s State of the Union could dictate whether the incumbent ultimately runs for another four years as commander in chief.

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The Charles Koch-funded super PAC has poured millions of dollars into the former South Carolina governor’s 2024 campaign. But after she lost her home state’s GOP primary over the weekend by roughly 20 percentage points, AFP is taking its deep-pocketed spending account elsewhere.

Given the challenges in the primary states ahead, we don’t believe any outside group can make a material difference to widen her path to victory,” said Emily Seidel, a senior advisor for AFP. “While we will continue to endorse her, we will focus our resources where we can make the difference. And that’s the US Senate and House.”

Along with his late brother, David Koch, Charles Koch controls Koch Industries, the multinational conglomerate that’s the second-largest privately held company in the US.

The company’s real estate arm, Koch Real Estate Investments, acquired the long-stalled Fontainebleau Las Vegas casino in 2021 for an undisclosed price. Koch financed the finishing of the 67-story blue building that had been a lingering Strip eyesore and a reminder of the US Great Recession. Fontainebleau Las Vegas opened in December 2023.

Trump Presumptive GOP Nominee

The odds of former President Donald Trump securing the Republican Party’s presidential ticket for a third consecutive presidential election cycle continue to shorten. The former casino magnate has won the first four GOP primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.

Trump, a longtime foe of the Koch network, blasted AFP’s support of Haley on his Truth Social media platform.

Americans for No Prosperity just announced that they are no longer supporting Nikki ‘Braindead’ (Birdbrain?) Haley. Charles Koch and his group got played for suckers right from the beginning,” Trump wrote. “What a waste of money!”

Despite not winning a single state outright and securing just 20 delegates to Trump’s 110 through four contests and the US Virgin Islands, Haley has pledged to carry on with her campaign.

“I said earlier this week that no matter what happens in South Carolina, I would continue to run for president. I’m a woman of my word,” Haley told her supporters Saturday after the latest setback to her White House campaign. “I’m not giving up this fight when a majority of Americans disapprove of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden.”

Haley Exit Forthcoming?

A Haley campaign spokesperson said the Republican raised more than $1 million in grassroots donations since the South Carolina defeat.

We have plenty of fuel to keep going,” said Haley spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas.

The Koch money running out, however, is a major blow to the former UN ambassador’s 2024 pursuit. Campaign finance records show AFP spent more than $32 million on Haley since publicly backing her in November.

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Of the estimated $5.37 billion Americans wagered online on this year’s Super Bowl, just $1.4 billion was bet legally, according to the research conducted by Yield Sec. The analytics firm posits that 350.5 million online bets were placed by Americans on the game, 65% of which, or $228.2 million, were on illegal platforms.

That means the black market took a greater share than last year, according to the study. In 2023, the Super Bowl generated 286 million online bets, split between 186 million black-market bets and 100 million legal bets.

Why is it Taylor Swift’s Fault?

Black-market operators can offer the kind of novelty prop bets (exotics) that regulated U.S. market operators can’t. That’s because the latter are generally required by law to stick to sports.

Black-market operators were offering an array of such bets. But in the regulated markets, “Swifties” had to content themselves with betting on their hero’s boyfriend, Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, to score the first touchdown. Sure enough, in the leadup to the game, DraftKings reported this was the most popular bet among its customers.

Back to Black

The idea that regulated online betting weakens black-market gambling, live and online, has been a key argument for states that have legalized sports wagering since the federal prohibition (PASPA) was lifted in 2018.

CFG, which is skeptical of the benefits of regulated online gambling, suggests the Yield Sec research shows this argument has been overstated.

Substitution from illegals to legals is simply not happening at the pace it should – illegals are used as brands of choice and convenience, with some substitution to legals for offers and account-opening incentives, when available, as with the Super Bowl,” states the report.

Unburdened by taxation, regulation, and rigorous security checks, black-market operators often offer more competitive odds, bonuses, and promotions, although they come with fewer customer protections.

They also “prey on Americans, undermine problem gambling efforts, and steal tax dollars from states and local governments,” according to the American Gaming Association (AGA), the Washington DC-based advocacy group for the regulated gambling industry.

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It was a week ago today that Robert Hur, a former U.S. attorney and DOJ-designated special counsel, released his report on whether Biden willfully retained and shared highly classified documents.

The documents were stored at his Delaware estate while a private citizen after Biden’s time as Vice President ended in January 2017. The documents were discovered in November 2022 by the President’s attorneys.

Hur concluded that “no criminal charges are warranted,” despite the investigation determining that “President Biden willfully retained and disclosed classified materials after his vice presidency when he was a private citizen.”

Hur said the classified documents included materials relating to the military and foreign policy in Afghanistan. The special counsel said the evidence did not establish guilt beyond a reasonable doubt and “innocent explanations” for the documents could be contended in court. Hur also said a jury might be sympathetic to the President because of his age.

We have considered that, at trial, Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” Hur wrote.

Biden won’t have to go to court, as former President Donald Trump has in his legal defense of retaining classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida upon exiting the White House. However, the special counsel’s findings are nonetheless damning to the President’s reelection.

2024 Odds Lengthen

Following the Hur report being made public, Biden’s odds of securing another four-year term lengthened.

Hur said the President “did not remember when he was Vice President” or “when his son, Beau, died.” Biden held an impromptu press conference following the Hur report’s publication where he expressed anger toward the special counsel.

How in the hell dare he raise that?” Biden told reporters during a Thursday night press conference. “Frankly, when I was asked the question, I thought to myself, it wasn’t any of their damn business.”

NBC News, however, reported this week that Justice Department sources claim Biden — not Mur — was the one who brought up his son’s death.

Biden Replacement

The President is 81 years old. When he took office at 78, he was the oldest President by nearly eight years. Trump is the second-oldest President, as he took office in January 2017 at 70.

Speculation is running rampant as to who the Democrats might bring in as their 2024 candidate if Biden decides not to seek reelection.

The leading contenders are thought to be former First Lady Michelle Obama and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Their implied 2024 odds on Smarkets are respectively 8% and 5%.

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DeSantis garnered 21.2% of the Iowa caucus vote, far behind Trump at 51%. Just two days before the New Hampshire primary, and with polling showing the governor commanding just 7.5% of likely voters, DeSantis suspended his presidential campaign.

It’s clear to me that a majority of Republican primary voters want to give Donald Trump another chance,” DeSantis said. “I signed a pledge to support the Republican nominee and I will honor that pledge.”

DeSantis said Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the primary race, represents the “old Republican guard of yesteryear” and is a “repackaged form of warmed-over corporatism.”

Trump welcomed DeSantis’ backing and pledged to end the use of the “DeSanctimonious” nickname. DeSantis lent his endorsement despite the two engaging in a bitter dispute since the Florida governor in May 2023 announced his intent to seek the White House.

The former president called DeSantis “a really terrific person” and “very gracious.”

Trump Odds Shorten

The faction of GOP voters who are “never Trump” wanted this scenario — Trump vs. a consolidated single challenger. But Haley has faced criticism for her deep-pocketed corporate donors and her unwavering financial support of Ukraine.

Whether Haley can win over DeSantis’ supporters will be seen in the coming weeks. After New Hampshire on Tuesday, the Republican primary moves to Nevada, then South Carolina, and then Michigan.

When the race reaches Idaho and Missouri in early March, political bettors expect Trump to be the last candidate standing. PredictIt bettors continue to buy shares of Trump representing the Republican ticket for a third consecutive presidential election.

On the market, “Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?” Trump’s shares have ballooned from 84 cents a week ago to 90 cents on Monday morning. Haley’s shares are at just 9 cents.

Peer-to-peer betting exchange Smarkets gives Trump a 90% chance of winning the GOP ticket. Haley is at just 5%.

Will History Repeat?

It’s becoming increasingly likely that Trump and President Joe Biden will face off in the 2024 presidential election in a 2020 rematch. Trump, 77, and Biden, 81, are essentially neck and neck for the general election.

Biden and Trump’s shares on the PredictIt market asking, “Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?” are each at 45 cents. Haley is at 6 cents and California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom and Robert Kennedy Jr. are at 4 cents. VP Kamala Harris is at two cents.

Some political pundits still believe Biden will ultimately decide not to seek reelection and step aside. But that’s likely only if someone with strong name recognition and approval in the Democratic party emerges.

That person, some Dems hops, will be Michelle Obama. There are rampant rumblings throughout the political arena that the former first lady is mulling a late entry. Roger Stone, Trump’s longtime advisor, believes Ms. Obama will soon announce her candidacy.

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Iowa is the first state in the union to conduct its primary this presidential election. Accustomed to cold temperatures and snowy winters in January, Iowans will brave historically frigid weather Monday evening to venture to high schools and community centers to participate in the first-in-the-nation caucuses.

Trump, seeking to represent the Republican Party for a third consecutive presidential election cycle, is the heavy betting favorite to emerge as Monday night’s victor. Traders on the political wagering exchange PredictIt gives the 45th president a 96% chance of securing the most votes.

During his final appeal to Iowa voters yesterday, Trump said this is their time to make their voice louder than “all of the liars, cheaters, thugs, perverts, frauds, and crooks.”?

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has the next-best odds at an implied chance of just 6%. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is third at 2%, and former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is fourth at only a penny.

Caucuses Process

Republicans and Democrats conduct their Iowa caucuses in vastly different ways.

While Democrats require voters to move to the physical sides of their caucus site to support their fellow Iowans behind a specific candidate, Republicans first hold a town hall where designated community members make final campaign speeches on behalf of their preferred candidate. After those addresses, caucus attendees receive their ballots and make their picks in secret.

The ballots are collected, verified, and counted, with the results posted to the state GOP website. The Iowa caucuses begin at 7 p.m. CT.

Smarkets, a peer-to-peer political betting exchange, gives Trump an implied chance of 94% in securing the most delegates on Monday night. While Trump will likely kick off his reelection campaign in winning fashion and tout his success as a vote against the DC establishment and the many federal prosecutors and lawmakers seeking to put him in prison for the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, the candidate who comes in second will improve their odds of becoming Trump’s primary foe this primary.

Iowa Democrats Fold on Caucus

Monday’s vote in Iowa will be centered on the Republicans, as the Iowa Democratic Party opted to bypass its regular caucus in favor of an exclusive mail-in ballot system that runs until Super Tuesday, which this year is March 5. Democratic voters in Iowa can cast a primary vote via mail-in ballot as of Monday.

President Joe Biden is running unopposed from any serious challenger. He’s expected to field all 46 delegate votes in Iowa.

It’s worth noting that Iowa allows voters to change their party affiliation on election day. With many Iowa Democrats afraid of another Trump presidency, political observers in the Hawkeye State believe a faction of Democrats will take advantage of that option to move GOP primary support to one of the three Trump challengers.

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In what’s a major blow to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ 2024 aspirations, the Koch network, adamant supporters of GOP candidates but oppositionists to Donald Trump, are throwing their political clout behind Haley.

The Kochs are one of the country’s richest families. Forbes estimates their net worth at approximately $118 billion, with Charles Koch and his late brother, David Koch, each worth an equal $59 billion. The brothers’ father, Fred Koch, founded Koch Industries as an oil refinery in 1940. The multinational conglomerate is today the second-largest privately held company in the U.S., behind Cargill.

The Koch network thinks they’ve found that candidate in Haley. The Koch network plans to donate millions of dollars to her campaign through their super political action committee (PAC), Americans for Prosperity Action.

“AFP Action is proud to throw our full support behind Nikki Haley, who offers America the opportunity to turn the page on the current political era, to win the Republican primary and defeat Joe Biden next November,” said AFP president and CEO Emily Seidel.

https://twitter.com/AFPAction/status/1729551721561551283

“She has what it takes to lead a policy agenda to take on our nation’s biggest challenges and help ensure our country’s best days are ahead,” Seidel continued. “With the grassroots and data capability we bring to bear in this race, no other organization is better equipped to help her do it.”

Trump Response

The feud between the Kochs and Trump has been ongoing for years. The former president and 2024 GOP front-runner issued a statement through his campaign communications manager in response to the Koch network backing Haley.

No amount of shady money from George Soros, Democrats, and Never-Trump RINOs in partnership with endless-war swamp creatures in Washington will stop the MAGA movement or President Trump from being the Republican nominee and defeating Crooked Joe Biden,” said Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung.

Trump remains the betting favorite for the GOP ticket. His shares on the PredictIt market asking, “Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination” are trading at 75 cents. Haley is a distant second at 17 cents.

Winning shares on the political peer-to-peer betting exchange are redeemed at $1 each, minus a 10% commission for PredictIt.

The Koch family, through Americans for Prosperity, in 2012 donated $36.6 million to Republican candidates, the bulk of which went to Mitt Romney in his unsuccessful bid to oust President Barack Obama from the White House.

The Kochs greatly scaled back their political contributions in 2016 when Trump gained the party’s ticket. AFP gave only $13.3 million that year, with all of it going to Congressional campaigns, not Trump.

AFP contributed $47.7 million to Republicans during the 2020 election. But again, most of that money went to candidates not named Trump. AFP spent $69.5 million during last year’s midterms.

Casino Billionaire Sitting Out Primary

Koch Industries will soon enter the commercial casino industry when the Fontainebleau opens next month on the Las Vegas Strip.

In February 2021, Koch Real Estate Investments, an affiliate of Koch Industries, bought the long-stalled casino project for an undisclosed sum. Koch financed the completion of the resort and will lease the structure to Jeffrey Soffer’s Fontainebleau Development.

The Adelsons, unlike the Kochs, have been steady supporters of Trump. The couple gave more than half a billion dollars to Republicans between 2011 and 2020. Adelson died in early 2021, but his wife has pledged to carry on his political activities.

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The two-hour spectacle was highlighted by two confrontational exchanges between Haley, also previously the governor of South Carolina, and Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur who founded Roivant, a tech firm focused on health care.

Ramaswamy called Haley “Cheney in three-inch heels,” a critical reference to her foreign policy views aligning with former Vice President Dick Cheney. Tensions escalated further when Ramaswamy suggested Haley was a hypocrite for supporting a TikTok ban while her 25-year-old daughter used the social media app that’s been deemed a potential spy mechanism for China.

Her own daughter was using the app for a long time, so you might want to take care of your daughter first,” Ramaswamy said on the debate stage Wednesday night in Miami.

“Leave my daughter out of your voice,” Haley scoffed back. As he continued, she added, “You’re just scum.”

Haley, DeSantis Bounce

Though much of the post-debate conversation was focused on the Haley-Ramaswamy feud, political pundits found the night moderated by NBC News to be the most substantive of the three GOP dates this primary season.

Much of the evening was centered on foreign policy, something in Haley’s wheelhouse. Paired with a strong answer on abortion, many observers deemed Haley one of the night’s best performers.

DeSantis, who appeared more confident in his third national debate with a smaller field and in his home state, was also deemed to have had a good night. The governor’s stock in the same market climbed a penny to 11 cents.

Ramaswamy’s shares went unchanged at a nickel. Tim Scott, South Carolina’s junior Republican Senator, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie were also on the stage last night. But political bettors give them less than a 1% chance of securing the GOP presidential ticket.

Trump Maintains Momentum

Along with Haley and DeSantis, political analysts said another person had a good debate night, although he didn’t even show up. Former President Donald Trump has refused to participate in the three debates this year, as he has a commanding lead in both the polls and odds.

DeSantis suggested Wednesday night during a post-debate interview that the numerous charges Trump is facing are likely helping his campaign because he’s back in the news.

When I got reelected, I was dominating the news,” DeSantis said. “Trump was not getting a lot of the news. What changed was the Alvin Bragg indictment where he started to dominate the news again.”

DeSantis explained that the Bragg indictment, which he says is not a valid case, helped rile up Trump’s base. But DeSantis believes he’s the best option for the 75% of Republican voters who would be willing to move on from the former president.

“With the Republican electorate, 25% are going Trump no matter what, 25% have moved on, and then 50% in the middle are conservative voters who would vote for Trump, but they’d also vote for someone else. I think I’m the only guy who can really play in that space.”

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The RJC works to foster and enhance relations between the Jewish community and Republican decision-makers in DC and across the nation. The nonprofit is active in political campaigns, and its annual summit regularly attracts big-name politicians and candidates seeking the RCJ’s backing.

“I love Israel,” Trump declared several times. The repeated declarations garnered an enthusiastic applause.

The 45th president of the United States said next November’s election is critical to preventing a third world war. There are two current wars, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Hamas’ attack on Israel. The US is supporting Ukraine and Israel in those conflicts.

Preventing WW3

During his RJC speech, Trump said he is best suited to prevent further escalation of war.

“China respected us. Russia respected us. Everybody respected us. Under my presidency, our country was very feared and very respected,” Trump declared.

For every American terrified that Joe Biden’s catastrophic weakness will bring our country to ruin and closer than ever to World War III, I will stop World War III. We won’t have World War III, that I can tell you,” Trump said. “I will make this promise to you as president: we will restore peace through strength.”

Trump is the betting front-runner to win the Republican Party ticket for a third consecutive presidential election cycle. PredictIt bettors give him a 70% chance of being the GOP nominee.

Former Governor of South Carolina and US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley is a distant second at an implied chance of 14%. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is third at 11%.

Earlier in the evening at the RJC, Haley attacked Trump’s divisive rhetoric and his comments this week, saying the militant group Hezbollah is “very smart.”

“Eight years ago, it was good to have a leader who broke things,” Haley said of Trump. “But right now, we need to have a leader who also knows how to put things back together.”

Adelson Appeal

The RJC is a who’s who of the US Jewish community, but when it comes to political bankrolling, no name weighs heavier than Dr. Miriam Adelson.

The widow of the late Sheldon Adelson, who founded Las Vegas Sands, built The Venetian and Palazzo resorts and transformed China’s Macau into the world’s richest gaming market. The Adelsons poured over $524 million into Republican PACs, committees, and candidates between 2011 and 2020.

The late Adelson sat on the RJC board of directors. His wife continues to support the RJC and Jewish causes. She also owns the media outlet Israel Hayom, where she regularly writes op-eds.

Adelson has vowed to stay out of the primary process and focus her funding on the party’s nominee. Trump reportedly dined with Adelson privately this weekend at The Venetian.

Trump acknowledged Adelson at the start of his RJC speech.

Miriam Adelson. A fantastic woman. Miriam, thank you very much,” Trump said to a roaring ovation. “They like you, Miriam. We all like her. I like her a lot.”

The former president touted his relocating of the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, something that was near and dear to Adelson and her husband.

“I opened the American embassy in Jerusalem. They had been talking about that for a long time, Miriam. That is what you and that great man wanted, right? We got it built. It was supposed to cost $2 billion and we got it done for $500,000. And it is probably nicer.”

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Trump, 77, a former casino tycoon who owned gaming resorts in Atlantic City and Indiana, is seeking the US presidency for a third consecutive presidential cycle. The billionaire remains the heavy betting front-runner to secure the Republican Party’s ticket for next year’s showdown with the presumed Democratic candidate, incumbent President Joe Biden.

The RJC event is critical for the 2024 GOP field, as they will try to win over billionaire Dr. Miriam Adelson’s support for next year’s primaries and general election. Dr. Adelson is the widow of Sheldon Adelson, who founded Las Vegas Sands and built The Venetian and Palazzo Resorts.

Adelson died in 2021 at 87, leaving behind a fortune worth more than $30 billion. Adelson was a steadfast supporter of Republican candidates, with him and his wife donating over $200 million to GOP candidates during the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Republicans Descend on Las Vegas

Trump won’t be the only 2024 Republican candidate to speak at the RJC Annual Leadership Summit.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, and former Vice President Mike Pence are all set to speak. Businessman turned politician Vivek Ramaswamy and US Sen. Tim Scott (R-South Carolina) are also on the docket.

However, most eyes will be on Trump, with the expected focus of many speeches being on Israel’s ongoing war with Hamas. The Palestinian Islamist militant group, designated a terrorist group by the US, UK, and the European Union, launched a surprise attack on Israel on October 7.

The embassy relocation was a years-long focus for the Adelsons. The May 2018 move came 23 years after the passage of the Jerusalem Embassy Act signed into law by President Bill Clinton in 1995. The law set aside funds for the US government to relocate its embassy in Israel and recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

The Jerusalem Embassy Act ordered that the embassy be relocated by May 31, 1999. Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama administrations opted to issue repeated waivers postponing the relocation.

Latest Odds

Though he’s facing a flurry of legal issues, including dozens of criminal charges through four indictments, Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win the GOP 2024 ticket.

Bettors on the PredictIt political wagering exchange have Trump’s shares of winning the party’s nomination at 68 cents. Haley is a distant second at 15 cents, and DeSantis is third at 11 cents.

As for the Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2024, election, Biden is favored. The president’s shares of winning a second term are at 42 cents. Trump’s shares are at 37 cents.

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The ABC/Washington Post poll has Biden at a 10-point disadvantage if the election were held today. However, political analysts with the news organizations say the poll was an “outlier” and deviated greatly from other recent polling regarding a Biden-Trump rematch. The ABC–WaPo pollsters found Biden has poor marks among likely voters with his handling of the economy, border security, and Ukraine.

The Post and ABC, however, cautioned reading too much into the polling results.

The Post-ABC poll shows Biden trailing Trump by 10 percentage points at this early stage in the election cycle, although the sizable margin of Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat,” a statement from the media groups said. “The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggest it is probably an outlier.”

The average of recent polling in a hypothetical Biden vs. Trump 2024 general election, according to Real Clear Politics, has Trump with a 1.6-point advantage.

Betting Markets Neck-and-Neck

Betting on elections in the US is illegal everywhere, as state gaming regulators have refused to sign off on such requests because lawmakers and federal officials say wagering could jeopardize the integrity of the democratic process. But oddsmakers overseas in places like the UK have long offered political betting lines.

William Hill, one of the largest bookmakers in the UK and Europe, has Biden’s reelection odds at 7/4, which implies a chance of 36.4%. The president is a slight front-runner over Trump, who is at 2/1. Trump’s line implies a chance of 33.3%.

Though a traditional bet can’t be placed in the US on the Biden-Trump head-to-head hypothetical, there are political wagering peer-to-peer exchanges like PredictIt that facilitate non-traditional sports bets on politics.

PredictIt peer-to-peer bettors who backed Biden for 2024 aren’t yet willing to sell off their shares at discounted prices. That’s kept the president as the betting favorite, with his shares trading this week at 43 cents. Trump is in second at 39 cents, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is in third at a distant 11 cents.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) at six cents and Vice President Kamala Harris at a nickel round out the top five front runners. Winning shares are redeemed at $1 once the market is settled.

The PredictIt odds align with the current odds available on Smarkets and Betfair, two other betting exchanges that accept action from US bettors.

Concerning Data for Biden

When Trump was president in the fall of 2019, polling suggested the former casino tycoon was facing an uphill battle against whoever would become his Democratic opponent.

A survey conducted by Public Policy Polling in North Carolina even concluded that US Women’s National Soccer Team star Megan Rapinoe would beat Trump in a 2020 presidential election. Rapinoe was popular at the time for being an outspoken critic of the president.

Trump’s PredictIt shares, as the summer ended in 2019, were trading at 43 cents, the same value Biden’s are currently at.

The current polling and betting data suggest the odds are good that Biden will be a one-term president. But, of course, a lot can, and most likely will, happen from now until Election Day on Nov. 5, 2024.

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A leading offshore sportsbook told Casino.org today that it’s taking bets on where Trump might pursue higher education. Melanie has said in the past that Barron is a sports-obsessed kid passionate about soccer and basketball.

St. John’s is also at +300. The line implies a likelihood of 25%. A winning $100 bet on that line would net $300.

Other schools with odds include Florida State and University of Connecticut (+500), Michigan State (+700), Kentucky (+850), and Duke and UNC (+1000).

Talent Unknown

Melanie and her husband predominantly keep Barron out of the public. Since the couple left DC, Barron has attended Oxbridge Academy in West Palm Beach. The ultra-private college preparatory school was founded in 2011 through a $50 million gift from Bill Koch. The Koch family has long been some of the Republican Party’s richest donors. The family’s realty division, Koch Real Estate Investments, acquired the unfinished Fontainebleau Las Vegas in 2021 and is working to bring the Strip casino to market.

Oxbridge does offer athletics, with its Thunderwolves sports teams participating in the Florida High School Athletic Association. However, the Thunderwolves’ boys’ varsity basketball website shows a roster of players, but Barron Trump isn’t one of them.

The Miami Heat (+275), Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics (+500), and Golden State Warriors and Chicago Bulls (+700) round out the top six likeliest teams to add Trump to their roster. As for whether Barron will be a first-round pick, the odds are long at +5000.

Presidential Children

The children of presidents and former presidents have their pick when attending college. Malia Obama enrolled and graduated from Harvard after leaving the White House. Sasha Obama, her younger sister by two years, enrolled at the University of Michigan but transferred to and eventually graduated from the University of Southern California.

President Joe Biden’s three children, the late Beau, Hunter, and Ashley, respectively attended the University of Pennsylvania, Georgetown, and Tulane as their undergrads.

Former President George W. Bush’s two daughters — twins Barbara and Jenna — respectively attended Yale and the University of Texas for their undergrads. Barbara went on to achieve her master of public administration from Harvard.

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Trump maintains a controlling lead in both the polls and online political betting exchanges to secure the GOP 2024 ticket and challenge incumbent President Joe Biden, the presumed Democratic nominee. According to the latest polling average compiled by Real Clear Politics, Trump has a 41-point lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who’s in a distant second place.

Though Trump was absent, the GOP debate was lively and, at times, combative. Pundits said afterward that each leading candidate had their moments. But the consensus seemed to support that DeSantis, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley were the winners.

Odds Movement

Political betting at sportsbooks remains prohibited across the U.S. Still, online betting exchanges allow those who believe they are better inclined at forecasting the outcome of elections to place wagers among themselves. Sites such as PredictIt allow players to wager up to $850 on an election outcome by buying and selling shares.

The legality of PredictIt remains contested in court. But the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals issued an injunction last month allowing the platform to continue its operations as the case persists. Despite the eight candidates on stage last night making their appeals to U.S. voters, political bettors believed the chaotic, and at times, heated back-and-forth — Ramaswamy’s political inexperience and youth were often targeted — only helped Trump’s 2024 odds.

Haley’s stock also didn’t change; she’s in a distant fourth at six cents. No other candidate on last night’s stage has shares trading at a nickel or higher.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie lost a cent to four cents, while Trump’s former Vice President Mike Pence, who was more confrontational than usual, gained a penny, but remains at just three cents.

General Election Movement

Despite being a no-show, the first GOP debate was also a win for Trump’s chances of reoccupying the White House. While Biden remains the 2024 favorite, PredictIt bettors giving him about a 43% chance of winning a second term, Trump’s stock climbed two cents for an implied chance of about 30%.

Ramaswamy also saw his presidential odds shorten. His 2024 stock climbed four cents to an implied shot of 11%.

The next Republican presidential primary debate is slated for September 27. Only time will tell if Trump will grace the stage and address his challengers and the American electorate. Trump is facing 91 criminal counts in the four indictments brought against him.

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PredictIt, the face of the online betting exchange market in the US, facilitates the buying and selling of shares of potential political outcomes. While Las Vegas-style betting on political events is prohibited across the nation, PredictIt has operated lawfully since 2014 when the online betting exchange was issued a “No-Action” relief letter from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The CFTC rescinded its no-action relief letter from PredictIt a year ago this month. That resulted in PredictIt suspending new betting markets. But last month, the US Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals sided with PredictIt and ordered a lower court to prevent the CFTC from taking further action against the online political betting website.

Election Integrity

As PredictIt’s future was called into question, another online betting exchange, Kalshi, sought similar relief from the CFTC. Kalshi notified the CFTC in June that it wants to offer political markets.

PredictIt says its betting lines provide critical insights into political races and events, not unlike traditional polling. PredictIt insights are used by academics around the world.

In a letter dated Aug. 2, 2023, to CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam from six Democratic US Senators, the coalition urges the commodities agency to continue opposing online exchanges that facilitate the buying and selling of political happenings. The letter was signed by US Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-Rhode Island), Ed Markey (D-Massachusetts), Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts), Chris Van Hollen (D-Maryland), and Dianne Feinstein (D-California).

PredictIt limits bettors to wager a maximum of $850 on each individual market, often referred to as contracts. Kalshi limits bets to $25K per position. The CFTC recognized the New York-based betting exchange in November 2020.

In appealing for the CFTC to block Kalshi from opening political markets, the US senators say such betting threatens the integrity of elections.

The CFTC has never allowed a for-profit venture to operate a political event contract, nor has the agency permitted any entity to operate a political event contract of such scale. Establishing a large-scale, for-profit political event betting market in the United States by approving Kalshi’s requested contracts, would profoundly undermine the sanctity and democratic value of elections,” the senators wrote.

The senators believe introducing financial incentives into the elections process “fundamentally changes the motivations behind each vote, potentially replacing political convictions with financial calculations.”

Billionaires Cited

The six Democratic Senators wrote a hypothetical example clarifying their reasoning for them opposing political betting exchanges.

“Billionaires could expand their already outsized influence on politics by wagering extraordinary bets while simultaneously contributing to a specific candidate or party,” the letter continued. “There are strong ethics concerns as political insiders privy to non-public information could wield their inside information to profit at voters’ expense.”

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Hamsters.gg is a website that bills itself as the home of the “world’s first live streamed hamster race.” The site features a prominent link to the Hamstersgg Twitch page, where viewers can catch the races.

The website seems to be very new – a lookup of the domain name shows that it was only registered this past May. The site only launched its races and betting activity less than two weeks ago.

Rapid Rodent Races

There’s not much information available about the platform and the fact that it only accepts bets through cryptocurrency adds to the anonymity. Entering the site with a username and password isn’t possible – connecting a crypto wallet is the only way.

https://twitter.com/RealJonahBlake/status/1682870819217604609

Twitter user Jonah “RealJonahBlake” Blake posted about the site, hinting that it could be based “somewhere” in Europe. He added that there were bets as high as $2,000 and, on occasion, as many as 4,000 viewers between Hamsters’ platforms.

The races apparently take place every hour, with the hamsters running through tubes to the finish line. The first one to cross is the winner, and those who bet on that rodent collect their winnings.

There are cameras atop each tube that follow the action, which the website owners assert is completely legitimate. Jonah points out that the hamsters don’t have to race, and no one forces them to dart out the gate when it opens. What isn’t clear is what happens to the bets on that hamster if it doesn’t race.

Another Twitter user, PZ, explained in a post that some hamsters, including Rocky and Buster, can regularly attract bets of $500. One of their competitors, CK, would be an underdog at any sportsbook that posted hamster racing odds. He’s won just eight races out of 334.

In addition, there’s a hamstersgg_betting feed on Telegram. This one, however, seems to be designed more to pump a crypto related to the platform. It has 160,382 subscribers.

Odd Move for Twitch

Less than two months ago, Twitch CEO Dan Clancy said that online gambling needs better regulations. He said in an interview with Twitch streamer Filian that gambling sites should “adhere to the regulations of most countries…”

It seems odd, then, that Twitch, even in the face of declining viewership, would allow Hamsters.gg on its platform. One could argue that perhaps it hasn’t had time to step in, but two weeks should be more than enough for Twitch’s and Amazon’s robust software development skills to detect a gambling site.

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The DOJ inquiry is the latest federal investigation into the 45th president of the United States.

Despite the legal issues surrounding his 2024 presidential campaign — the billionaire and former casino tycoon’s fourth official presidential effort — Trump remains the betting front-runner to secure the Republican Party’s nomination to challenge Biden next year.

Odds Hold Steady

On the online political betting exchange PredictIt, Trump is still the heavy favorite to win the GOP’s presidential ticket for a third consecutive time.

PredictIt’s market asking, “Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?” has Trump’s shares at 60 cents.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), once seen as the GOP favorite and the potential new leader of the Republican party, has run a lackluster 2024 campaign since announcing his bid via Twitter in May. DeSantis’ 2024 shares for the Republican ticket are at just 20 cents.

American entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has the third-shortest GOP odds at 10 cents. Winning PredictIt shares are redeemed at $1 once the market is resolved.

Though he faces a myriad of federal charges, Trump says the allegations are meritless and represent just the latest in the Democrats’ ongoing “witch hunt.”

Deranged [DOJ Special Counsel] Jack Smith, the prosecutor with Joe Biden’s DOJ, sent a letter … stating that I am a target of the January 6th grand jury investigation and giving me a very short four days to report to the grand jury, which almost always means an arrest and indictment,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

“So now, Joe Biden’s Attorney General Merrick Garland, who I turned down for the United States Supreme Court (in retrospect, based on his corrupt and unethical actions, a very wise decision!), together with Joe Biden’s Department of Injustice, have effectively issued a third indictment and arrest of Joe Biden’s number one political opponent,” Trump added.

Biden 2024 Favorite

Trump went on to claim that he’s “dominating” Biden in the 2024 presidential race, a claim that’s not necessarily backed by recent polling and odds.

Biden’s shares on the PredictIt market, “Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?” are trading at 44 cents to Trump’s shares at 37 cents. DeSantis is a distant third at 14 cents. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and VP Kamala Harris round out the top five, with their shares respectively at 10 cents and four cents.

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The White House was briefly placed on lockdown Sunday evening after a white powdery substance was found inside the presidential mansion by the Secret Service. A test later confirmed it was cocaine.

The Secret Service said the cocaine was found in a cubby where staffers and some guests regularly leave their cell phones and other personal materials. President Joe Biden and First Lady Dr. Jill Biden were not at the White House when the cocaine was found, but were instead at Camp David before returning to DC on Tuesday.

Hunter Heavy Favorite

The cocaine discovery naturally spurred social media gossip that the drug likely belonged to Hunter Biden, the president’s son who has a lengthy history of drug addiction and crack cocaine use.

The misplaced cocaine came a day after Casino.org reported on photographs supposedly from 2018 that allegedly show Hunter Biden driving 172 mph on his way to Las Vegas for an orgy with prostitutes. The photo dump additionally included an alleged photo of the president’s son smoking a crack cocaine pipe while driving in the residential neighborhood of Arlington, Va.

BetOnline, an offshore iGaming platform and internet sportsbook that rarely shies away from offering controversial odds, is taking bets on the owner of the White House cocaine. The book operates out of Antigua and Barbuda, an island nation in the West Indies that’s friendly to offshore gaming businesses.

Oddsmakers think there’s little chance that the president himself misplaced the cocaine. Biden’s odds of being responsible for the cocaine are at +15000, or implied odds of just 0.66%.

The market stipulates that all action will be refunded if the owner is not publicly identified by Aug. 1, 2023.

Hunter Happenings

BetOnline has an array of betting opportunities for those wishing to keep tabs on Hunter Biden. The offshore sportsbook has a series of potential things the president’s son might do this year.

The sportsbook has “to go into a rehab clinic” at +800, to announce he’s fathering another child at +1200, and to confirm he’s dating Kim Kardashian at +8000.

Bets are also being accepted for a Hunter Biden move, with China and Ukraine both at +10000. The smattering of relatively humorous odds has the shortest line at +300 for Hunter to be fined by the US Department of Justice.

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With the July 4 holiday and summer vacation trips topping agendas for many Americans, some states are taking a different path to keep people engaged in the wide world of sports wagering. And Oregon is stepping up to the plate with some usual offers.

One example is the American Cornhole League World Championship in late July. Then there’s the Tour de France beginning July 1 and Major League Baseball’s Homerun Derby on July 10.

Typically, summer isn’t the busiest time for sports betting, but there are many opportunities for fun wagers on lesser-known events,” said Kerry Hemphill, Oregon Lottery’s sports betting product manager.

Since we mentioned Independence Day, we should also mention Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. To be fair, betting on devouring hot dogs isn’t an option just relished in Oregon. Since 2020, states including Arizona, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Michigan have made wagers on the event legal for licensed sportsbooks.

By the way, Joey Chestnut will return to defend his title this year. Chestnut has been the king of the Coney Island event for seven years and is a 15-time winner.

On the women’s side, Miki Sudo has won eight of nine contest titles since Nathan’s began the women’s division in 2011.

States are Measuring the Competitive Eating Market

Competitive eating isn’t just a Coney Island thing. There are 17 major league eating contests around the country this year, according to a study by Gambling.com

Hemphill, Oregon’s lottery sports betting product manager, maintains that lesser-known sporting events can be lucrative and offer opportunities for fun and win. Call them a recipe for summer fun without worrying about indigestion.

Back to the Beaver State

Oregon launched digital sports betting in October 2019, and the state lottery is a powerhouse.

While the state looks to offbeat betting to keep fans engaged this summer, don’t expect the expansion of tribal casinos there. In April, Governor Tina Kotek expressed opposition to expanding tribal casinos and the overall expansion of gambling.

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DeSantis and US Sen. Tim Scott (R-South Carolina) formally threw their names in the GOP 2024 hat late last month. They joined former President Donald Trump, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and conservative radio host Larry Elder in officially declaring their intent to secure the Republican Party’s 2024 nomination for president.

The ballooning primary field is seemingly improving Trump’s odds of being the Republicans’ presidential nominee for the third consecutive presidential election cycle. The growing list of candidates is meanwhile lengthening DeSantis’ odds of upsetting the billionaire front-runner.

Complicated Relationship

DeSantis was once seen as Trump’s successor as the leader of the GOP. But as DeSantis’ stock in the Republican Party rose, Trump noticed and began to distance himself from the Florida governor.

The attacks have since escalated, with Trump taking credit for DeSantis’ gubernatorial election win in 2018.

DeSantis got elected because of me. You remember he had nothing. He was dead. He was leaving the race. He begged me for an endorsement,” Trump claimed during an interview in February. “He said, ‘If you endorse me, I’ll win.’ And there were tears coming down from his eyes.”

DeSantis has refrained from directly attacking Trump, but said on Twitter during his 2024 presidential announcement that it’s time for the GOP to start winning again.

“We must end the culture of losing that has infected the Republican Party in recent years,” DeSantis declared. “The tired dogmas of the past are inadequate for a vibrant future. We must look forward — not backward.”

DeSantis Odds Lengthen

Political pundits believe the more Republican primary candidates the better for Trump, arguing that a crowded field will spread out the anti-Trump vote and allow the former casino magnate to prevail. Political bettors seem to agree, as DeSantis’ odds of securing the party’s presidential nomination continue to lengthen.

Pence and Scott have the next shortest odds at just six cents. Haley is at four cents, and Virginia Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is at three cents. No other Republican has shares valued at more than a penny.

PredictIt redeems its markets by paying out $1 on winning shares.

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Following a significant loss during his campaign to strike it rich with multinational transportation company FirstGroup, Tchenguiz reportedly owes ￡2 million (US$2.5 million) to the betting company.

This is on top of the $7.6 million IG Index wanted from him via a court order in a case dating back to last August. In another failure, the flamboyant millionaire had to pay ￡1.31 million (US$1.63 million) to CMC Markets for similar reasons.

Spread Betting is Risky Business

Spread betting is wagering on the financial market’s direction without possessing any of the underlying financial instruments, such as stocks, commodities, securities, or forex options. It typically includes changes in the prices of those instruments.

Unlike betting on the over/under in sports, however, financial spread betting means significantly leveraging the investment amount. This may result in greater earnings should everything go well, but it also increases the losses if they don’t, like in Tchenguiz’s case.

Financial spread betting is illegal in the US, according to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This is partly because of the risks involved, but also because the country still hasn’t developed nationwide gambling regulations. That may change in the future, but likely not anytime soon.

All On the Line

Tchenguiz, a British entrepreneur of Iranian origin, incurred a loss of ￡4.1 million (US$5.11 million) with Spreadex after opening an account with the firm to buy FirstGroup shares. He took similar steps with other betting companies to invest in the company, none of which panned out.

That brought the plans to a grinding halt, as Spreadex began chopping any open spread bets Tchenguiz had at the time, putting him further in the hole. He was carrying a negative balance of ￡1.5 million (US$1.87 million) that he couldn’t cover. Spreadex wants its money, as well as another ￡580,000 (US$722,738) it says he owes in interest charges.

The company stated in its court filing that it gave Tchenguiz a chance to cover himself. Instead of depositing his own money, it tried to get him to open a line of credit, which he refused. If he had heeded the advice, his losses would have been much less, as he wouldn’t have wagered as much of his own money against the leveraged margins.

Tchenguiz has acknowledged that he’s more than willing to pay fair amounts for the crashes. However, he asserts that he is being “financially raped” and that Spreadex has inflated the amount he owes.

Whether his defense stands up will depend on the court judge. Tchenguiz settled with IG Index while the courts determined that CMC presented enough evidence to force payment in full.

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The 76-year-old Trump is seeing his 2024 odds slightly improve following his town hall appearance on CNN this past Wednesday with host Kaitlan Collins that turned into a heated and lively conversation. The controversial debate, panned by Trump critics and celebrated by his supporters for the network giving primetime exposure to the former president who is currently the subject of a state lawsuit, has resulted in the Republican front-runner seeing his odds rally.

On the PredictIt market, asking, “Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?” Trump’s shares have climbed two cents since the CNN spectacle that involved the former commander-in-chief telling Collins she’s “a nasty person.”

Trump also lengthened his lead on securing the GOP’s presidential ticket. Trump’s shares in the PredictIt market asking, “Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?” are up to 57 cents. Florida Gov Ron DeSantis is a distant second at 30 cents.

Trump Needs New Supporters

The Republican Party appears split with less than 500 days remaining before US voters begin casting their ballots. Many in the GOP want to move on from Trump, and DeSantis is seen as the billionaire’s successor to head up the Republican movement.

Trump is refusing to concede to the next generation, and he didn’t hold back during the CNN town hall, lambasting DeSantis and referring to the governor as “DeSanctimonious.”

During the town hall, Trump repeatedly stressed his ongoing belief that the 2020 election was comprised, claims Collins repeatedly rebuked.

All of these fake investigations of me are about election interference. They think, because I’m leading Biden by 11 points, seven points, nine points, and I’m leading DeSanctimonious by a lot — 40 points or 45 points. I think he ought to just relax and take it easy and think about the future, because, right now, his future is not looking so good,” Trump said of his two chief opponents standing in his way to another White House stint.

Collins pressed Trump to pick a side in the Ukraine-Russia war, something Trump refused to do. Instead, the president said he simply wants “everybody to stop dying.” Trump also refused to take a concrete position on abortion, another pressing 2024 topic.

“I’m looking at a solution that’s going to work. It’s a very complex issue,” Trump deflected regarding abortion.

Trump Reaches New Demo

Trump’s CNN appearance allowed him to connect with television viewers who might not typically tune in to the cable news outlet he most frequents, Fox News. And that’s why many CNN faithful panned the network’s invite to the 45th president.

Several Twitter hashtags trended late Wednesday, including “BoycottCNN,” “DoneWithCNN,” and “ByeCNN.” CNN Chief Executive Officer Chris Licht responded to the criticism.

“I am aware that there have been people with opinions and backlash, and that is absolutely expected,” Licht replied. “And I’ll say this as clearly as I possibly can: you do not have to like the former president’s answers, but you can’t say we didn’t get them.”

“America was served very well by what we did last night. People woke up and they know what the stakes are in this election in a way they didn’t the day before,” Licht declared.

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Steam’s community rules have always been somewhat abstract. Although Valve had a list drawn up with many of the behaviors prohibited from being carried out on its platform, the truth is that many actions remained in a kind of legal vacuum, which prevented establishing a real specification of what could really be sanctioned.

Valve hopes its updated policies clear the air, and the anti-gambling language, which seems to also cover certain loot box-related activity, is a response to years of legal hassles the company has dealt with. However, judging by the responses on social media, many gamers have no intention of changing their habits.

Of Loot Boxes and Skins

The new code of conduct, which has been posted on Reddit and other platforms, states that gambling activity could lead to player bans. It extends to skins and loot boxes, although Valve has been changing how loot boxes operate in an attempt to free itself from the negative connotation they currently have.

A year earlier, there were news stories circulating about teenagers using their parents’ credit cards to purchase CS:GO weapon keys and bet them on unauthorized websites. Reports from Forbes noted that these weapons were providing young gamers with an excessive amount of power.

Consequently, Valve was reprimanded by the Washington State Gaming Commission. However, it was ultimately able to bypass any long-lasting harm that could have resulted from the scandal.

Valve was accused of fraud by plaintiffs who claimed that they were deceived by the company without ever using Steam or any of its games. However, the court rejected this argument, partly because of the lack of evidence.

The Case Must Go On

Posting the updated policies on Reddit led to a hearty discussion about what might happen next. Some expressed doubt over enforcement action. Others stated that streamers opening prize cases in front of audiences in games like Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO) could be considered gambling.

This is because there are betting markets on what the cases might contain. The website CSGO Case Tracker showed 39 million case openings in March of this year, with players spending more than $100 million to purchase the contents.

Despite the announced changes, one user, “SweetLobsterBabies,” expressed doubt about Valve’s newly announced position toward gambling.

“They aren’t going to do anything about this. This is a legal stance they are taking, but I highly doubt they start banning accounts for trading with gambling sites,” SweetLobsterBabies said.

Other Rules Coming to Valve

One of the new changes applied with the Steam Community Rules update is related to sexual content on the platform. Although Valve has already banned any content related to pornography, the new rules specifically prohibit sexually explicit content, exempting “in-game content posted on its own game center.”

The updated rules also prohibit the following in an effort to clean up Steam:

• Insults or harassment
• Threats or incitement to harm
• Trolling or causing arguments
• Discrimination
• Bypass word or content filters
• Public accusations against others

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