Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers Makes Big Move in NFL MVP Race

Posted on: September 16, 2020, 08:18h. 

Last updated on: September 17, 2020, 08:57h.

Bill Huber Read More
Expertise: Sports Betting, Sports.

For years, Aaron Rodgers was arguably the most dominant quarterback in the NFL. The Green Bay Packers’ standout won the Super Bowl in 2010, earned NFL MVP in 2011 and 2014, and led the Packers to NFC Championship Games in 2014 and 2016.

Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers celebrates a fourth-quarter touchdown at Minnesota. (Image: Brad Rempel/USA TODAY Sports)

While Green Bay returned to the conference title game last year, Rodgers’ play has deteriorated a bit the past three seasons. With the rise of hot-shot quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens, Rodgers had fallen back to the quarterbacking pack.

In fact, he was only ninth on FanDuel’s MVP board at +2,300 entering the season.

Even being ninth represented name value and past production more than anything. However, after a four-touchdown masterpiece against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, Rodgers has thrown himself right back into the MVP mix.

Rodgers Rises to Fourth

The NFL Week 1 outcome that might have had the most profound impact on the odds might have been Green Bay’s shellacking of the favored Vikings.

Entering the season, the Packers were +3,100 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel, and slightly behind the Vikings in the NFC North. However, Green Bay’s 42-33 victory has changed all the equations. The Packers are +2,600 to win the Super Bowl and solid favorites in the division at +125 to Minnesota’s +250.

The same is true for MVP. Rodgers’ odds shortened considerably to +1,400.

We think it was an encouraging performance by Green Bay, with Rodgers and the offense looking really efficient,” said John Sheeran, the director of trading for FanDuel Sportsbook, to Casino.org. “The final score really flattered the Vikings, although Green Bay took advantage of some inexperience at corners for Minnesota.”

Quarterbacks Lead the Way

On FanDuel’s MVP board, Rodgers trails only Mahomes (+350), Jackson (+550), and Seattle’s Russell Wilson (+600).

After Rodgers, it’s Dallas’ Dak Prescott (+1,700), Arizona’s Kyler Murray (+1,700), Houston’s DeShaun Watson (+1,800), New Orleans’ Drew Brees (+1,800), and Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady (+2,300).

In fact, the first non-quarterbacks on the list are Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey and Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry. They are tied for 18th at +5,000.

As you will see, the front of the MVP market is littered with QBs, and Rodgers is as good as any of them,” Sheeran told Casino.org. “He doesn’t have the team around him of the likes of Mahomes and Lamar, but if he can carry them to the playoffs, we expect him to be a runner in the MVP race, so 14/1 seems the right spot for him.”

While Rodgers made the big move, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz is headed in the opposite direction. He opened fifth on FanDuel’s MVP board at +1,700, but fell to +3,300 after a bad loss to the Washington Football Team.

Green Bay’s Super Bowl odds took a big hit in April when it didn’t address immediate needs in the draft. It took quarterback Jordan Love in the first round and running back AJ Dillon in the second round, with both players opening the season on the third unit.

However, Rodgers has found a comfort level in Year 2 under coach Matt LaFleur. A strong training camp, which included incorporating something he saw from the 2010 film, carried over to a huge performance in Week 1.

“It wasn’t anything super special,” Rodgers said of the decade-old video. “It was just some things that kind of hit my brain in the moment, went back and looked at a few more clips, and just started incorporating them. I felt like there were a lot of things I’ve tried to do in the off-season. When it comes down to quarterback play, it’s all about the rhythm and the timing and the balance. I feel like those three were pretty solid on Sunday, and the accuracy followed.”