Strategy

How To Beat Baccarat: The Best Baccarat Strategies Revealed

How To Beat Baccarat: The Best Baccarat Strategies Revealed
By Stephen Tabone April 29, 2024
8 minute read

To win baccarat, you must use a baccarat strategy that can produce results when up against the power of the house edge. Merely following the advice to “always bet on Banker” is not a clever strategy. Beginners may stick to a flat-betting strategy, while more advanced players will adopt a pattern-based baccarat strategy with a staking system built into it.

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Best Baccarat Strategy for Beginners

If you’re new to baccarat, I’d recommend starting with a simple strategy. When you gamble in live or online baccarat games, avoid complex or long sequences.

You can go with the Fibonacci strategy, or just stick to flat betting. Flat betting simply means staking the same amount of money in all games, whether you win or lose.

Because you bet the same amount on each hand when flat betting, you’ll be able to maintain a tight reign on your bankroll and minimize risk. It also allows for gradual learning; you can track your win/loss ratio and hone your skills of selecting more correct outcomes and fewer consecutive wrong outcomes.

Once you’ve mastered this strategy, you can begin to form a baccarat staking strategy. This is a strategy you develop that works for the average results you’re able to achieve.

Baccarat Staking Strategies

In 50:50 gambling games of chance, like baccarat, you face the following problems:

  • Trying to recover from losses
  • Trying to get ahead from breakeven
  • Trying to stay in front, when in front

It’s therefore more common to come across negative progression staking strategies, rather than flat-betting strategies.

Negative Progression Staking Strategy

A negative progression strategy is a betting system where you increase your bet after each loss, in the hope of recovering previous losses when you win. The Martingale strategy and the Fibonacci strategy are two well-known examples of this.

Certain negative progression strategies work well, but only when your gameplay can predict correct outcomes with high bet sizes.

So, the betting decisions you make:

  1. Need to turn out to be right in at least 33% of the outcomes you bet on, and…
  2. …with no more than three losses in a row before a win, on average.

The negative progression win/loss ratio will look something like this:

W-L-L-L-W-L-W-W-L-L-W-L-W-W-L-L-W-L-L-L

If you’re not going to follow a negative progression strategy to bet your way out of trouble while still trying to make a profit, you need to flat bet.

Flat Staking Strategy

If you flat bet to secure a profitable advantage, you need to turn out to be right in at least 55% of the outcomes you bet on in a baccarat shoe.

The more shoes you bet on in a baccarat gambling session, the higher your win rate needs to be, especially if you’re winning on Banker hands and the baccarat variant subjects you to 5% commission. Then I’d recommend a 65% win rate.

The flat betting win/loss ratio will look something like this:

L-W-W-W-L-L-W-L-W-L-W-W-L-W-W-W-L-W-W-W

When your baccarat gameplay doesn’t work out, it doesn’t really matter what strategy you use, because the result will fail to beat baccarat.

Next, let’s look at some popular baccarat betting strategies in more detail.

Martingale Betting Strategy

The Martingale betting system is well-known. You might’ve heard of it if you’ve been betting on other even-money casino games such as roulette or baccarat.

But even if the name doesn’t ring a bell, if you’ve ever chased your losses, you’ve used the Martingale to some extent.

This popular baccarat betting strategy involves doubling your wager after each loss, with the goal of recovering previous losses and making a small 1 unit profit. But the Martingale strategy isn’t as gold as some gamblers make it out to be.

What makes the Martingale betting strategy tick is the theory a player will eventually win a hand, thereby recovering all losses and making a small (1 unit) profit.

It doesn’t consider the 5% commission if the win occurred on Banker. If it did, depending on the bet size, this could even negate the 1 unit of profit sought!

Martingale Strategy Pros

  • Straightforward to understand.
  • Can lead to quick recovery of losses in theory.

Martingale Strategy Cons

  • Requires a large bankroll to sustain losses during a losing streak.
  • Risk of reaching the table maximum bet size limit or running out of money before a win.
  • Doesn’t consider the house edge, or 5% commission on Banker wins, which can lead to long-term losses.

Fibonacci Betting Strategy

The Fibonacci strategy is based on the Fibonacci Sequence, where each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers:

Example: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13

  • 1+1=2
  • 1+2=3
  • 2+3=5
  • 3+5=8
  • 5+8=13

Following the Fibonacci sequence in baccarat means you increase your bets after each loss (moving to the next number in the sequence), and decrease your bets after each win (moving back at least two in the sequence). You can decide which lower number to start the sequence again with. E.g. If you won on 13, you could start on 5 or 2.

Fibonacci Strategy Pros

  • Provides a more gradual increase in bets compared to the Martingale betting system.
  • Less aggressive and lower risk of large losses. Recommended for beginners just getting started.

Fibonacci Strategy Cons

  • Requires a moderate bankroll to withstand consecutive losses.
  • Winning streaks may not always make up for previous losses.

1-3-2-6 Betting Strategy

The 1-3-2-6 is a progressive baccarat betting strategy, where you increase your bet size in a certain order after each win:

  • 1 unit for the first win
  • 3 units for the second win
  • 2 units for the third win
  • 6 units for the fourth win

Following a loss, the sequence returns to 1.

1-3-2-6 Betting Strategy Pros

  • Structured approach with clear betting progression.
  • Limits losses during losing streaks.

1-3-2-6 Betting Strategy Cons

  • Requires a winning streak to be profitable, which may not be that simple for beginners or players who struggle to make the right calls (Banker or Player).
  • It’s harder to win on 3rd and 4th consecutive outcomes: 3-in-a-row and 4-in-a-row wins. Equally, it’s not easy to get single and double outcomes correct.
  • Doesn’t guarantee long-term success and may result in losses if the streak is interrupted by a loss.

Paroli Betting Strategy

This is often referred to as the “reverse Martingale” strategy. Here, you double your bets after each win to capitalize on winning streaks and maximize profits. The pros and cons are like the 1-3-2-6 system, but let’s go over them.

Paroli Betting Strategy Pros

  • Capitalizes on hot streaks and maximizes profits during winning streaks.
  • Limits losses during cold streaks by resetting the bet size after a loss.

Paroli Betting Strategy Cons

  • Relies on consecutive wins to be profitable.
  • Vulnerable to losing streaks that can quickly wipe out profits or reduce your bankroll.

Strategy For Predicting The Correct Banker Or Player Outcome

Ultimately, there isn’t one. If it were easy to always make the right call, there wouldn’t be so many gambling strategies telling gamblers to wager more in a losing streak. Good gambling strategies do not include a method for selecting whether to bet on Banker or Player hands in baccarat games.

There are only two hands in baccarat, but four possible outcome patterns, as follows:

  1. Streak of Banker outcomes
  2. Streak of Player outcomes
  3. Choppy streak of both hands
  4. Combination of a, b, and c, including short streaks and changing patterns

This combination of patterns makes it difficult to predict correct Banker or Player outcomes.

Below are some examples relating to the above patterns. Note: I believe a streak forms at a minimum of 3-in-a-row.

  • Banker pattern streaks: B-B-B-B-B
  • Player pattern streaks: P-P-P-P-P
  • Choppy streak: B-P-B-P-B-P
  • Short streaks: B-B-B / P-B-P / P-P-P
  • Changing patterns:   P-P / B-P / B-B / P-P-P / B-P-P / B-P-B / P-B / P-B-B   

A run of Player outcomes can be just as long as a run of Banker outcomes. And choppy runs can be long too.

In the game of baccarat, we know that the Banker hand has a slightly higher probability of occurring due to the baccarat drawing rules. However, over a limited number of shoes, Player outcomes could in fact dominate.

You might conclude that runs of Banker outcomes are more likely, but each shoe produces vastly different results, so don’t bank on it.

Baccarat House Edge And Baccarat Betting Strategies

It’s important to address the casino’s house edge in baccarat.

Whatever baccarat technique you end up using, you should bear in mind the forces that are working against you. These are built into the game and function in the background.

The house has the following edge on Banker and Player bets (based on an 8-deck shoe):

  • 1.06% for Banker
  • 1.24% for Player

It doesn’t really matter if the outcome results in a tie, because you won’t lose your stake.

The most common version of baccarat deducts a 5% commission from the winning portion of a winning Banker bet. So, if you bet $20 on Banker and win, you’ll receive $39 (consisting of your $20 stake + $19 total win amount).

Obviously the 5% commission takes more out of your winnings the higher your stake, even though the house edge remains the same. If you only (or mostly) bet on the Banker hand, you should factor in what you stand to lose over the long-run.

The Impact Of Commission On Baccarat Strategies

You have two hurdles to overcome when playing baccarat:

  1. Making the right call i.e. has the hand you bet on won the round?
  2. How badly is all that commission you’re paying affecting your baccarat bankroll?

The deducted 5% commission of 20 flat betting Banker wins is equivalent to one unit.

When you bet higher stakes and win on Banker, it costs you more. And you’re not going to win every Banker hand, even the ones you stake more on. This means that the house has you cornered.

Naturally, baccarat bettors are attracted to betting on Banker because of its lower house edge. The leading baccarat bet selection strategy (common amongst baccarat game authors) is to bet the Banker no matter what. But this is not a clever strategy.

And why not? Start out on the premise that:

  • You have a 50:50 chance of winning on Banker and Player
  • The outcomes of the average 8-deck shoe return 37x Bankers, 33x Players and 5x Ties
  • The outcomes occur within a combination of patterns, as explained above.

No hand gets ahead of the other by much at any stage of a shoe. Flat betting Banker all the way will result in you losing almost 2 units on commission!

Also, when you increase wagers, you run the risk of losing more on commission and/or losing more chips when Banker doesn’t hit.

Expert Tips For Trying To Win At Baccarat:

Whether you’re a baccarat beginner or have been playing the game for ages, the following baccarat tips should come in handy.

  • Bankroll management: Proper bankroll management is essential. Set loss limits and stick to them to avoid chasing losses and overspending.
  • Consistency: Stick to a consistent baccarat betting strategy and avoid making impulsive decisions based on gut feelings.
  • Discipline: Avoid chasing losses or deviating from your initial strategy. During both winning and losing streaks, stay focused and stick to your plan.

Baccarat Strategy Myths And Misunderstandings

A common misunderstanding about baccarat outcomes is the belief that the same patterns or trends will continue or end. Since baccarat is a game of chance, each hand is independent of the previous ones.

You may see a streak of Banker or Player outcomes, but each subsequent hand is statistically independent and unaffected by previous results. So, it’s difficult to win if betting on a certain pattern to form.

Nonetheless, identifiable reoccurring patterns do form. If you can ride the wave of a forming pattern, you could rack up some nice wins.

Baccarat Strategy Conclusion

When it comes to baccarat betting strategies, most of what you’ll come across online isn’t written by those with actual gambling experience. So, pay close attention to this baccarat strategy guide.

This guide is meant to be a learning curve for beginners. But it’s detailed enough to be read by seasoned baccarat gamblers.

Predicting outcomes and deciding how much you’re willing to stake on baccarat rounds isn’t easy. Trying to beat the game of baccarat is a journey of modifying bet selections and staking strategy techniques.

For more on baccarat, check out this article on baccarat side bets.

Lead image credit: Vectorportal.com, CC BY 4.0